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Monday, November 26, 2007

A model endeavor

Traffic analysts today are faced with evaluating diverse and complex solutions to address congestion in transportation systems. Instead of "simply" deciding how many lanes to design for a new freeway or how long the turn bays should be at a traffic signal, practitioners now are analyzing advanced traffic signal and ramp metering systems, for example, and complex weaving and geometric configurations, intelligent transportation system strategies, multimodal corridor management plans, and congestion pricing strategies.

Traffic microsimulation analysis tools can help evaluate these complex solutions by modeling real-world transportation networks on a systemwide scale that is difficult with more traditional methods. Dramatic improvements in computer processing speeds and capabilities in the past decade have enabled traffic microsimulation software to model increasingly complex and larger scale transportation systems. As a result, microsimulation is quickly becoming popular among traffic analysts and is playing an important role in transportation investment decisions.

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) is a leader in developing traffic microsimulation models, dating back to the development of NETwork SIMulation (NETSIM) in the 1970s, FREeway SIMulation (FRESIM) in the 1980s, and the merging of NETSIM and FRESIM into a single CORridor SIMulation (CORSIM) model, all of which was integrated into the Traffic Software Integrated System (TSIS) package in the 1990s. In the early 1990s, TSIS/CORSIM was the only viable traffic microsimulation model available to practitioners. By the late 1990s, however, a number of commercial vendors began offering their own versions of traffic microsimulation packages to meet the growing demand. Today, the popularity of microsimulation packages continues to increase, and there is now a viable market for commercial traffic simulation vendors.

In the early 2000s, FHWA reevaluated its future role in the traffic simulation market. A survey of traffic practitioners and existing traffic simulation packages revealed that while most of the software packages, although robust and providing a range of analysis options, still have some intrinsic limitations that can affect the performance and accuracy of the model results. These limitations in the functionality of current microsimulation systems have generated questions in the transportation community. For example, simulation users view many microsimulation software packages as "black boxes" in that users are not sure how model outputs are calculated and, as a result, are not confident in the accuracy and validity of the model results.

As a result of the market assessment, FHWA decided to take a different role in the traffic simulation market. Rather than compete with the commercial simulation vendors by continuing to develop TSIS/CORSIM, FHWA would act in a "market facilitator" role by focusing public resources on fostering an environment of public-private coordination through research products that will benefit the entire traffic simulation community: practitioners, vendors, and researchers.

Enter the NGSIM Program

With the goal of improving the quality and use of traffic microsimulation tools to facilitate transportation decisionmaking, FHWA's Traffic Analysis Tools Program began the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) program in 2002. NGSIM is a unique public-private partnership between FHWA, transportation consulting companies, university researchers, and foreign and domestic commercial microsimulation software developers.

The objective of the program is to develop a core of driver behavior algorithms that represent the fundamental logic in traffic microsimulation models, with supporting documentation and validation datasets. NGSIM products will be well documented, openly distributed, and free to the transportation community through the NGSIM Web site (www.ngsim.fhwa.dot.gov).

"The NGSIM program represents a model public-private partnership that has yielded demonstrable benefits for both sectors," says Nagui Rouphail, chairman of the NGSIM stakeholder traffic modelers group and director of the Institute for Transportation Research and Education at North Carolina State University. He adds, "Here the [U.S.] Government acts as the catalyst for developing sound science and the data to back it up, while the private sector commits to participate in the development process as well as incorporating the research findings into its commercial software. This process ensures wider dissemination of the research results and even wider acceptance of the underlying science."

The NGSIM team is composed of traffic simulation and modeling experts managed by a private company. The team is supported by senior advisers from respected transportation institutions across the Nation and includes three stakeholder groups: a traffic modelers group that represents researchers and others who develop driver behavior models, a software developers group of private vendors responsible for developing and maintaining commercial traffic simulation software, and a model users group that represents the practitioners who use traffic simulation models for decisionmaking.