To the Editor: Many Pacific Island countries and areas have been severely impacted in influenza pandemics. The 1918 pandemic killed substantial proportions of the total population: Fiji [approximately equal to] 5.2%, Tonga [approximately equal to] 4.2% to 8.4%, Guam [approximately equal to] 4.5%, Tahiti [approximately equal to] 10%, and Western Samoa [approximately equal to] 19% to 22% (1,2). Thirty-one influenza pandemics have occurred since the first pandemic in 1580 (3); another one is likely, if not inevitable (4). The potential use of influenza as a bioweapon is an additional concern (5).

The scale of an influenza pandemic may be projected on the basis of the available historical data that have been built into a computer model, e.g., FluAid (6). FluAid uses a deterministic model to estimate the impact range of an influenza pandemic in its first wave. Given the lack of accessible data for specific Pacific Island countries and areas, the default values used in FluAid were used for the proportion of the population in the high-risk category for each age group, for the death rates, hospitalizations, and illness requiring medical consultations. Country-specific population data were obtained from the Secretariat of the Pacific Community, and hospital bed data were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) (7,8). The FluAid model was supplemented by a model of an 8-week pandemic wave and modeling of hospital bed capacity. Further methodologic details are provided in the online Appendix (available from htttp:// www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol11no02 /04-0951_app.htm).

The results indicate that at incidence rates of 15% and 35%, pandemic influenza would cause 650 and 1,530 deaths, respectively, giving crude death rates of 22 to 52 per 100,000 (see the Table in the online Appendix). Most deaths (83%) would occur in the high-risk group, 60% of whom would be 19 64 years of age, and 22% would be [greater than or equal to] 65 years of age. Additionally, 3,540 to 8,250 persons would be hospitalized, most of whom (78%) would not have high-risk conditions. Also, 241,000 to 563,000 medical consultations would occur. Most (87%) consultations would be for patients without high-risk conditions (50% birth-18 years of age and 46% 19-64 years of age).

The uncertainties associated with pandemic influenza mean that any modeling of its future impact is relatively crude. For example, the new strain may be particularly infectious, virulent, or both. In contrast, the use of international-level public health interventions as recommended by WHO (9) may prevent pandemic influenza from reaching some Pacific Island countries and areas or particularly remote island groups. These issues and other limitations with the model are detailed in the online Appendix.

Nevertheless, if the death rate is in the range suggested by the model, this outcome would make it the worst internal demographic event since the 1918 influenza pandemic for many Pacific Island countries and areas. The lower death rate (albeit for a single wave) is similar to the U.S. rates for the 1957 influenza pandemic (22 per 100,000) and the 1968 influenza pandemic (14 per 100,000) (10). The upper end is considerably lower than for the 1918 pandemic, which suggests that the range indicated is reasonably plausible. Although relatively high, the death toll from pandemic influenza would still be less than the typical annual impact for some Pacific Island countries and areas from other infectious diseases (including malaria and diarrheal diseases) and from such fundamental determinants of health status such as poor sanitation, poor diet, and tobacco use.

The predicted range of hospitalizations attributable to pandemic influenza would likely overwhelm hospital capacity in many of the Pacific Island countries and areas. Rapid response at the onset of the pandemic could ensure efficacious use of hospital beds and resources, e.g., cancel elective procedures and early discharge to community care. Other contingency plans by hospitals could facilitate lower hospital admission rates (e.g., strengthening the primary care response).

The enactment of the Hazardous Materials Transportation Uniform Standards Act of 1990 placed added emphasis on the need to assess the risks and benefits associated with the transportation of hazardous materials by all modes. Rail transportation is playing an increasing role in the growing movement of hazardous materials. The events of September 11, 2001 and the real possibility of future attacks have raised the concern level for rail transportation of hazardous materials and the safety of people and property in the event of a terrorist rail incident. Add to this the ever present possibility of an unrelated rail accident involving hazardous materials especially given the growing volume of hazardous materials.

This paper presents a preliminary risk probability model of a train accident or terrorist incident involving hazardous materials by identifying relevant variables and their applicability to rail movement risk analysis. Although the risk of release due to a rail accident or incident is estimated to be small, it is not impossible. Risk of a low-probability high-consequence accident involving a significant release of hazardous materials must be given adequate consideration.

A delineation of a concept of risk assessment and linking that concept to rail transportation quantitative risk analysis is the initial basis for this paper. It is followed by a review analysis of relevant hazardous materials transportation risk models. Based on these existing models, the paper outlines the elements of a risk based modeling analysis to include types and causes of rail accidents. The paper then defines an initial methodology for carrying out a risk assessment of rail transportation of hazardous materials to include risk of terrorist attack. To accomplish any risk assessment of hazardous substances movement during rail transportation, one must consider the complexity and magnitude of chemicals moving through the rail network. The multiplicity of chemical and physical characteristics of substances, location of manufacturing facility in relation to final destination and volume of cargo tend to further enhance the dimensions and complicate the issue.

Railroads are an essential component of our transportation economy. Some 40% of all intercity freight goes by rail, including 67% of the coal used by electric utilities to produce power and 20% of the chemicals (USDOT, 2005; AAR, 2005a). There are thousands of chemicals in use today and many more are being introduced all of the time. Railroads carry an even higher percentage of those chemicals essential to the public health and standard of living for the United States. Chlorine, for example, used to purify the nation's water supplies has significant rail movements (AAR, 2005b).

Vast quantities of these hazardous substances are being moved by rail alone. Due to the nature of most chemicals, they can pose hazards of explosion, toxic release, and fire. The transportation of these hazardous materials is an important problem due to their pervasiveness. Hazardous materials, or dangerous goods, include explosives, gases, flammable liquids and solids, oxidizing substances, poisonous and infectious substances, radioactive materials, corrosive substances, and hazardous wastes. The fact that the volume of hazardous materials moving by rail more than doubled since 1980 indicates that rail has become an integral part of the tremendous increase in the transport of hazardous materials. Nearly 155 million tons of chemicals are being transported by rail in North America each year which constitutes 1.75 million rail cars of hazardous materials (D'Amico, 2001).

The risk associated with a release of these materials during transportation is what differentiates rail shipments of hazardous materials from rail shipments of other materials. Hazardous materials can be extremely harmful to the environment and to human health since exposure to their toxic chemical ingredients could lead to the injury or death of humans, plants, and animals. The events which have traditionally given rise to hazard during rail transportation are container failure or the impact due to collisions. However, on October 24, 2002 the FBI issued a warning, based on information obtained from al-Qaida prisoners, which said terrorists may try to destroy bridges or key sections of railroad infrastructure and tracks. In its warning, the FBI said captured al-Qaida photographs of U.S. railroad engines, cars and crossings increased the agency's concern about the threat. The 140,000 mile network of rail tracks, bridges, and terminals, more than three times the Interstate Highway System, presents a huge security challenge. Much of the network is in isolated areas where fencing is neither practicable nor effective. Intelligence officials continue to believe that aI-Qaida plans to attack targets such as railroads that would be readily recognized as representing U.S. economic interests. In sum, security has placed a new dimension of concern on the rail system across the country. Terrorism must now be added to the risk equation.

To the Editor:

Although we agree with several of the cautions made in the Autumn 2004 Parameters article by George Reed, Craig Bullis, Ruth Collins, and Christopher Paparone, "Mapping the Route of Leadership Education: Caution Ahead," a moratorium on competency modeling seems unwarranted. Core competencies can help align parts of an organization to a central purpose. In contemporary operations, organizational core competencies can help leaders prioritize decisions and focus on enduring goals.

The five military services all use competency models. Within the US Army, competencies are an established part of doctrine. The Army operates with two core competencies, as outlined in its 2004 Posture Statement. Field Manuals (FM) 7-0 and 7-1 require competency-based leader development. Competency models have been developed by various agencies, including the Army War College, and recent work by the US Army Research Institute has led to a new set being considered for an update to FM 22-100.

Some studies report that up to 80 percent of businesses use competency modeling (see Schippmann et al., 2000, for a review of competency modeling practices). The federal government uses competencies, and in just one application the Office of Personnel Management has claimed a savings of $10 million over traditional approaches to personnel management and development (Rodriguez et al., 2002). Putting aside for a moment the notion of competency, the expectations of Army leaders must somehow be identified--no matter what label is used for the requirements. Every Army educational institution has some mechanism in place to specify learning objectives and course content. The top complaints from soldiers and leaders have been the duplication in lessons across Army courses and schools, and the material coming later than it was needed to prepare them for their jobs (US Army Combined Arms Center, 2001, 2002a, 2002b, 2003). Having a coordinated set of requirements seems central to improving Army education.

The authors indicated that a detailed competency model could result in education that is contrary to what is needed, but competency models attempt to avoid overspecification. A primary advantage of competency modeling over traditional job analysis is that competency models state requirements in terms of the person rather than the job. Thus, the focus is placed squarely on developing people, which is important for an organization in which all senior leaders are promoted from within. Competencies should not constrain education, but help to clarify desired educational outcomes and other means of development.

The examples (e.g., adaptability, creativity, public speaking) noted in Reed et al. are commonly construed elsewhere to be competencies. Reed et al. stated that these activities need not be identified in a competencies list because the set should be subject to continual change. However, competency models can and should be verified and revised through actual use, regular assessment, and refinements applied to leader development. Even if requirements like adaptability, creativity, and communication are not listed in a competency framework, there still would be some source for instructional content. Additionally, the authors' proposed model of curriculum development is not all that different from competency modeling.

As Reed et al. noted, a good teacher can overcome a poor curriculum. Thus, good teachers will not be constrained by competency lists. For instructors who are less experienced, however, scientifically validated competency models can help provide structure, guidance, and tools for teaching. Starting from a common competency model can elevate instructional quality by helping teachers to develop a consistent approach. Incorporating validated concepts and evidence into instruction should help convey a complete picture of what is required of Army leaders. Instructors operating in good faith can be expected to use educational requirements to improve teaching, not restrict it. In addition to educational benefits, competencies have a wide variety of other uses, such as coordinating leader development across ranks. Competencies also offer benefits for leader assessment, assignment management, and organizational communication.

As scientists we understand that there are valid perspectives other than competencies that can contribute to the identification of leadership requirements. However, one advantage of a scientific approach is that methods and results are documented and can be verified or disconfirmed. It is not clear what alternative method Reed et al. have in mind for identifying leadership requirements. Without some form of a competency list or some type of specification of the performance domain, it is unclear how the authors are suggesting that leadership will be observed in operational circumstances and developed.

lobal attempts to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may impact on agricultural trade and producer returns, particularly in countries such as New Zealand, where a relatively large proportion of GHG emissions originate from the agricultural sector. This study uses an extended partial equilibrium agricultural trade model to analyze the effects of trade policy liberalization on agricultural production and trade, as well as on GHG emissions. Further analysis combines trade liberalization with GHG mitigation policy in the New Zealand and European dairy sectors, and the effects on producer returns and GHG emissions are predicted. As expected, full trade liberalization in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries enhances producer returns in New Zealand's dairy sector, but reduces returns in the European Union's dairy sector.

Key Words: partial equilibrium trade model, agricultural production system, greenhouse gas emissions

The link between trade and the environment has aroused considerable interest, both in terms of the impact of trade liberalization on the environment, and also the impact of environmental policy on production and trade. This interest is expressed at the global level, especially in the World Trade Organization (WTO) round of negotiations, but also at the micro level, where local governments and agencies are concerned about the impacts of policies on production and trade, as well as on the local environment. This paper analyzes the effects of trade liberalization on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, as climate change is an increasingly important environmental concern. An extension of this analysis will simulate the combined impact of trade liberalization and a GIIG mitigation policy. This second part of the analysis will focus particularly on the impact on New Zealand, a country highly reliant on agricultural trade and which has a high percentage of its total GHG emissions originating in the agricultural sector.

The analysis in this paper simulates the removal of all European and OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) export subsidies, import tariffs, and internal dairy quotas, focusing specifically on the impact of this on the dairy sector. Trade policy reform, such as liberalization, will significantly reduce the system of support for livestock production. Studies that analyze trade policy such as the Uruguay Round Agricultural Agreement or the CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) reform generally show that production in countries whose support is removed decreases, while other countries' production may increase (Cox et al. 1999, Shaw and Love 2001, Rae and Strutt 2001). International trade offers an important vehicle for adapting to climate change. By permitting the geographic relocation of world food supplies according to changing comparative advantage, spatial diversification of the climatic risk associated with global warming may be achieved (Randhir and Hertel 2000). By facilitating the transfer of output from regions with possible environmentally harmful production to regions where production may be less environmentally damaging, international trade can play a valuable role in mitigating the global cost of climate change. However, the potential for trade to play this buffering role is often hampered by restrictive trade policies. Furthermore, as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001), there is a need to identify the extent to which the impacts of climate change mitigation policies create or exacerbate inequities across nations and regions. Changes to trade policies of trading partners and/or competitors, in particular the European Union (ELJ) and the United States, are likely to have significant effects on the GHG emissions from New Zealand agriculture. Following possible and likely liberalization of international agricultural trade policies, New Zealand producers are likely to respond by increasing production to target the newly liberalized markets, further increasing emissions from New Zealand.

MONTE CARLO -- Hurricane Katrina tore ashore in late August with such fury that the insurance industry was unable to keep up with exactly how much damage she had done.

Two weeks after the storm wreaked havoc on Gulf Coast communities and oil platforms offshore, carriers, reinsurers and modeling vendors were still scrambling to update their original loss estimates.

And that has some people wondering just how accurate some of the models are, and whether catastrophe models themselves should be candidates for a downgrade or two of sorts.

"The impact on modeling will be big," said Henry Keeling, CEO of reinsurance operations of XL Capital. "Blind interpretation of models will be questioned."

He also said that many capital-markets companies that relied on insurance industry models before developing catastrophe risk products for investors may "pause a bit," and even turn away from selling such products altogether.

"It clearly causes a rethinking in the way we sell products and the way we price the product," said Jamie Veghte, CEO of XL Re America Inc.

Among the capital-markets players invested in catastrophe risk products are hedge funds. Managers who run these funds will now begin to reconsider the models used to make their investment decisions, analysts with Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's said.

"Katrina will cause a rethinking of catastrophe models," said Ted Collins, group managing director of global insurance for Moody's. "For the hedge funds, that's a question they will be asking themselves.

By mid-September, many carriers, reinsurers and modeling firms had revised their loss estimates, and few expected even those revisions would stand once the flood waters began to recede and adjusters were allowed to survey the wreckage to policyholders' homes and businesses.

The world's largest reinsurer, Munich Re, for example, withdrew its initial loss estimate of $500 million when it became clear that the damage would far exceed it. Days later, on Sept. 12, Swiss Re announced it would double its $500 million loss estimate to $1.2 billion.

Modeling vendors were even busier in the wake of the hurricane. Risk Management Solutions Inc., which first announced a loss range of $10 billion to $25 billion, upped the damage window to between $40 billion and $60 billion by mid-September.

EQECAT increased its loss estimates from a range of $9 billion to $16 billion, to $14 billion to $22 billion, and finally from $26 billion to $43 billion. AIR Worldwide Corp. saw its estimates go from a range of $12 billion to $26 billion to $17 billion and $25 billion.

"I think this will also prompt another review of the reliability, of the modeling agencies," said Simon Marshall, a credit analyst with Standard & Poor's.

Some of the differences were also due to the companies excluding damage from flood. Whatever the ease, the differences added to the confusion and the uncertainty facing carriers and reinsurers.

Hemant Shah, CEO of the modeling firm RMS, admitted that it was "appropriate to be skeptical" about the catastrophe models, and said analysts and investors would need to "take a deep breath" when assessing the estimated losses incurred by a hurricane.

Strategy is critical to our current rating assessments because it encompasses all of the fundamental credit factors used in our analysis of not-for-profit healthcare entities--governance, medical staff, services and service area, competition, financial resources, and legal structure. These six factors have not changed over rime and remain the foundation for our credit analysis.

--A Rating Agency Analyst

The expected or hoped-for financial benefits of strategy are greatly discounted without a link to financial projections. If an organization is lacking financial projections, we will not provide bond insurance.

--A Bond Insurer

The strategic plans of many hospitals indicate
wanting to be everything to everybody, but the
question is, Are the strategic plans realistic
from a financial point of view? In evaluating an
organization's market and strategic position,
we're looking for financial sustainability.

--An Investor

Sound strategic planning is essential to effective organizational and financial performance.

All healthcare executives today are likely to agree with this statement, and also to recognize the need to link strategic planning with financial planning, Yet these views represent a significant leap forward from a rime when strategic planning in healthcare typically produced little more than a large document destined to gather dust on the shelf. Often pursued in a financial vacuum, healthcare strategic planning in years past tended to result in wish lists that could not be implemented or plans that were implemented without a sustainable financial foundation.

Today, healthcare financial leaders, board members, and other executives recognize the importance of using best practice, integrated strategic financial planning to effectively balance organizational strategies with financial capabilities. They know that this balance can significantly improve access to the capital needed to fund strategic initiatives. They still must answer a challenging fundamental question, however: What are the most essential elements of strategy upon which the integrated strategic financial planning process should focus?

A good way to answer this question is to ask the capital market players, namely the rating agencies, bond insurers, and investors in healthcare. In assessing comparative investment opportunities and organizational ability to repay debt, capital market players use extensive due diligence to evaluate hospitals' and health systems' strategies and financial performance. Understanding what they want to know about a healthcare organization, therefore, can provide an invaluable perspective.

To this end, we interviewed leading analysts in the agencies that rate healthcare credits, in the insurers that offer healthcare bond insurance, and in an institutional investor that purchases healthcare debt. These individuals pointed to six strategic concepts that make a critical difference to the decisions made by the capital markets.

Healthcare executives who understand and embrace these six "essentials" can be confident about well-focused strategic and financial planning efforts.

Essential 1. High-Level Strategic Thinking and Integrated Strategic and Financial Planning

The process an organization uses to devise its strategic plan and link it to its financial plan is critically important. "We look first for real evidence of strategic thought ... evidence that the organization's leaders are thinking globally about their business and about the forces that could impact the organization at multiple levels," comments Martin Arrick of Standard & Poor's. "The best organizations all have in common a well-developed, extensive planning process."

"People make fun of talking about process, but process has a huge influence on where you end up," Steve Renn of Ambac Financial Group, Inc., says. John Goetz of MFS Investment Management notes, "We avoid the extremes related to strategy--that is, organizations that either don't seem to have a strategy or whose strategy seems well beyond their means or pie-in-the-sky hopefulness."

The board and senior management is responsible for the development of strategy. "A formal, structured planning process that is supported by the board, CEO, and senior executives is critical," Renn says. "The process should benefit from multiple inputs from people and of resources

What is news? More precisely, when is news? Lately, the division has become starker between news that reports the details of past events, and "news" that is a forecast, a best guess, of the outcome of past events, or even of future events.

For some time, I have found fiction of increasingly little interest why should I care about made-up people, when real people have far more interesting lives and are, to boot, real? Much of what passes for "news" I find similarly uncompelling, because it is mere speculation. Worse by far, though, is the "news" that is speculation about speculation.

An example: A hurricane threatens--let's call it Cassandra. The TV news anchor, who has flown into the town most likely to be destroyed cuts to a guy in a sports coat with a computer screen. He is an "expert" on such matters, who confirms that when the storm hits in a couple of days, an apocalypse will ensue, with insured losses that will cause the collapse of insurance and reinsurance companies and disrupt shipping for generations.

As Hurricane Katrina approached New Orleans late in August, the catastrophe modeling agencies fell over each other to forecast the estimated cost of insured losses from a storm that had not yet hit anything. On Friday, Aug. 26, three days before Katrina made its second landfall, RMS forecast insured losses at $1 to $2 billion. AIR Worldwide's estimate that day was a maximum of $600 million. Guess who made the evening "news"?

On Sunday afternoon, RMS upped the ante: "greater than" and possibly "far more devastating than" $9 billion. Monday morning, as the storm hit, EQECAT forecast losses for U.S. insurers from Hurricane Katrina of $30 billion.

By Monday evening, Aug. 29, after the worst of things, estimates were "between $10 billion and $25 billion." The hurricane, in other words, followed a more or less predictable line, while the financial forecasts were all over the map.

What public service was fulfilled by these estimates? And why were they so wildly inaccurate? The only answer to the latter question is a losing proposition: hurricanes are erratic, and impossible to forecast with any accuracy, right up to and after the event. That being the ease, why issue speculative reports containing more hot air than the hurricane itself?

The agencies' forecasts were picked up by news organizations and parlayed into dire predictions of the washing-away of the city of New Orleans by a 28-foot tidal wave. RM8 provided a statistic: New Orleans had $40 billion of insured values, and the surrounding parishes some $110 billion.

The modeling agencies shouted "Fire!" in a crowded media room. The agencies have been very kind to me in terms of access in the past, but really, they must desist from this sort of behavior. The fact is that we really won't know the true losses for weeks, maybe months.

This study examines sources of fecal coliform in Segment 2302 of the Rio Grande, located south of the International Falcon Reservoir in southern Texas. The watershed is unique because the contributing drainage areas lie in Texas and Mexico. Additionally, the watershed is mostly rural, with populated communities known as "colonias." The colonias lack sewered systems and discharge sanitary water directly to the ground surface, thus posing an increased health hazard from coliform bacteria. Monitoring data confirm that Segment 2302 is not safe for contact recreation due to elevated fecal coliform levels. The goal of the study was to simulate the observed exceedences in Segment 2302 and evaluate potential strategies for their elimination. Fecal coliform contributions from ranching and colonia discharges were modeled using the Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF). Model results indicated that the regulatory 30-day geometric mean fecal coliform concentration of 200 colony forming units (cfu) per 100 milliliters is exceeded approximately three times per year for a total of 30 days. Ongoing initiatives to improve wastewater facilities will reduce this to approximately once per year for 14 days. Best management practices will be necessary to reduce cattle access to streams and eliminate all exceedences. The developed model was limited by the relatively sparse flow and fecal coliform data.

LaWare, Paul and Hanadi S. Rifai, 2006. Modeling Fecal Coliform Contamination in the Rio Grande. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 42(2):337-356.

INTRODUCTION

Despite tremendous effort, advances in wastewater treatment, and point source reduction through National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permitting, many streams still do not meet the water quality requirements of the Clean Water Act (CWA). Previously overshadowed by point source discharges, nonpoint sources are now recognized as significant contributors of pollution. Point source pollution results from discrete discharges that can be measured directly, such as municipal and industrial process or wastewater releases from a pipe or spillway. Point sources are continuous sources and have a greater impact during dry weather and low flow conditions.

Nonpoint source pollution, on the other hand, is a wet weather phenomenon that causes a rapid rise and fall of pollutant concentrations. Pollutants are not contributed as discrete, measurable quantities. Instead, they are contributed by runoff from large watershed areas carrying pollutants such as natural nutrients, minerals, metals, bacteria, acids, bases, and toxics. Some of the impacted water is carried by overland flow directly to surface water bodies, while some migrates along the shallow ground water table. Thus, the contribution is diffuse, difficult, and costly to evaluate and commonly results in violations of the local water quality standards.

This paper describes an analysis of point and nonpoint sources of fecal coliform bacteria to Segment 2302 of the Rio Grande River. The main goals of the study were to simulate the observed fecal coliform exceedences in Segment 2303 and to evaluate the impacts of proposed improvements to the sanitary infrastructure in the watershed on fecal coliform pollution. The Rio Grande forms the southern boundary of Texas and serves as a border between the United States and Mexico. As such, the contributing watershed to Segment 2302 lies on both sides of the border. The distinguishing aspects of this study lie in the transnational nature of the watershed and the characteristics of the contributing point and nonpoint sources of pollution.

The research described in this paper includes the development of a watershed model and nonpoint source analysis that can be used to establish a total maximum daily load (TMDL) for the segment. A TMDL is a calculation of the maximum amount of a pollutant that a water body can receive without exceeding water quality standards. Segment 2302 is 1 of 92 water bodies included in the 1999 CWA section 303(d) List of Impaired Waters in Texas because elevated bacteria levels do not support contact recreation. Elevated fecal coliform concentrations in Segment 2302 can be attributed to local nonpoint sources because there are no point source discharges within the segment. Also, the river segment immediately upgradient (Segment 2303 International Falcon Reservoir) has much lower fecal coliform concentrations that do not exceed the Texas water quality standard and therefore contribute very little in fecal coliforms to Segment 2302.

The development of TMDLs as mandated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is carried out by state agencies and involves considerable stakeholder input. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) maintains the 303(d) list of impaired waters in the state and is charged with developing TMDLs. The water bodies included in the Texas 303(d) list are prioritized according to the Texas Surface Water Quality Standards and additional criteria relating to data quality, water use, consequence of the impairment, or other pertinent conditions. Once a water body is included on the list, the TCEQ assigns a priority that is used to schedule TMDL development. Segment 2302 is classified as Low priority, with TMDL development scheduled to begin in 2004 and be completed by 2010. It is important to note that all interstate/international water bodies were ranked Low because of the uncertainty in obtaining international collaboration on TMDL development, regardless of the risk to human health and the environment. Comparable data are often unavailable on both sides of the international border. This study takes a new approach of developing the international data required for nonpoint source analysis, and as such the study represents a starting point for TMDL development.

How do I become a model?" is a frequent question from ESSENCE readers. Answer: A pretty face and great legs aren't all you'll need to break into the biz. Our insiders' tips:

1. Learn the lingo. A manager at an agency introduces you to clients and helps steer your career in exchange for 20 percent of your earnings. Your book, or portfolio, shows you in a range of professional photos. A camp card is a flyer featuring several shots of you, your measurements and your agency's contact information. A casting, an open call or a go see is an appointment with a prospective client.

2. Study your look. "Spend time staring into the mirror," says Maiysha, a Ford model and official print-campaign girl for Lane Bryant. "Know what your face does when you make different expressions." Kyle Hagler, a modal manager at International Management Group (IMG), advises, "Do as many test shoots as possible, even if they're only snapshots." Critique your photos: What is your best pose? Your most flattering angle?

3. Find a good agency. Most major modeling agencies are based in New York with branches in large cities like Miami and Los Angeles. But many smaller cities have modeling or talent agencies. Send local agencies you r best snapshots and arrange an interview. Before you agree to be represented by an agency, do your research: Who are the models it represents? What kind of work do they get (newspaper circulars, local fashion shows)? Is the agency listed with the Better Business Bureau

4. Beware of scams. No one should ask you to invest a lot of money in camp cards, portfolios or test shoots. A reputable agency that's serious about representing you will arrange for test shoots with some photographers willing to shoot you free of charge and sell you prints for a nominal fee, says Hagler. Or they'll advance you the money and deduct it from your first paycheck.

5. Understand the requirements. To model full-time, you must be able to work long hours (a shoot can last more than 12 hours), sometimes with little sleep. You must be determined, focused and in possession of extraordinary genes: Models are typically at least five feel nine inches tall and well proportioned (usually with hips and waist measurements that are approximately ten inches apart, such as 34-24-34). You'll also need flawless skin, straight teeth and symmetrical features.

6. Consider modeling school. "Schools can give you an advantage over others by teaching you how to walk, behave and dress," says Hagler. Ask if the school has an affiliation with a reputable agency. Find out how many working models the institution has graduated in the last two years. Check on consumer complaints with the Better Business Bureau.

7. Be persistent. You can't expect modeling jobs to come to you, says booker Sharon Elcock, who works with the New York management company Mode Squad, Inc. If you're just starting out, one approach is to contact the public-relations manager at your local mall and inquire about any in store fashion shows. Let your hairstylist know you're available for hair shows. If you live in New York City or can afford to travel there, call the fashion or beauty department of your favorite magazines and ask if they're planning any makeover stories. Indicate whether you're willing to cut or color your hair. If you're signed to an agency, "make sure they're aware of any talents you have--dancing, Rollerblading, acting. You never know what someone is looking for," says Elcock.

8. Develop a thick skin. "You're going to be turned down for being ton fat or too skinny, too ethnic or not ethnic enough," says Maiysha. Clients will critique your pictures and expect you to take it like a pro. "It's all about how the client envisions selling their product," Maiysha says. "It has nothing to do with you."

9. Don't be a diva. Jay Manuel, creative director-producer of shoots for UPN's America's Next Top Model, says, "Models are there to be molded by professionals who understand the industry. Don't arrive thinking you know more than they do."

10. Have a plan B, cautions Maiysha. Few modeling careers last longer than ten years. Seek financial advice, save money, and cultivate other marketable skills.

Wilhelmina and ESSENCE crown the faces of the future

The search for an ESSENCE cover model--one who might even become the next Naomi, Alek or Kiara--was a fierce one, but we accomplished the mission.

Last September ESSENCE and Wilhelmina (the agency that launched the careers of Beverly Johnson, Cynthia Bailey and Tracy Ross) joined forces to discover a fresh face with model potential. What followed: mail-ins, regional model calls and a five-city mall tour. More than 7,000 hopeful sisters entered the contest.

With masterful makeup artist Sam Fine and photographer Matthew Jordan Smith included among the regional judges, Wilhelmina and ESSENCE staffers selected the ten finalists, who competed in New York in April.

Duane Gazi, director of new model development at Wilhelmina, says youth, versatility, height and beauty will get models in the door, but they need an extra something to break out into the big time. Enter 18-year-old Aladrian Crowder, the $50,000 Grand Prize Winner. "Aladrian looks as if she could be from a number of places--Africa, the Caribbean, the UK," says Gazi. Aladrian is, in fact, from Owings Mills, Maryland. "I didn't expect any of this," says the young student, who plans to major in chemical engineering at the University of Delaware in the fall.

Twenty-six-year-old Pamela Reed, second runner-up and longtime ESSENCE subscriber, landed a $30,000 contract. She entered the competition because she trusted the magazine. "I knew it wasn't a gimmick," says the Birmingham, Alabama, native. The judges loved her confidence and genuine bright smile.

Our third finalist, 24-year-old Canadian Melissa Hunte, received a $20,000 contract. "I wasn't sure my look would be what they were looking for; but I thought I had a chance," she says. Her agent, Judy Linton, says, "What I like about Melissa is her overall expression--the dimples, the smile. Her charisma really shows. I also love the fact that she doesn't live to be a model." A graduate of the University of Windsor, she received an honors degree in criminology this past spring,

Air Force Agency for Modeling and Simulation, Orlando, Fla.: Supports the development and use of the Realistic Global Battlespace for training, analysis, acquisition, test and evaluation and operations. Implements Air Force. joint and Department of Defense modeling and simulation policies, architectures and standards: supports corporate Air Force M&S planning, requirements and investment, facilitates the establishment, transition and integration of major Air Force M&S initiatives and programs. and shapes decision making, mission rehearsal and execution. Supports cross-cutting initiatives such as Distributed Mission Operations and the Center for Domain Integration and promotes and supports technology improvements. Oversees the M&S professional development program and sponsors the annual Air Force M&S conference. Manages M&S Information Service, which includes the Air Force M&S Resource Repository, Event Planning System, M&S calendar, and the M&S help desk. The C4ISR Visualization Center is the AFAMS Pentagon Operating Location. The CVC provides senior leadership with a portal into Air Force and joint training events, experiments, wargames, real-world events and facilitates demonstrations of new and emerging technologies.

Air Force Audit Agency, Washington, D.C.: Provides all levels of Air Force management with independent and quality, audit services. Produces audit products that evaluate the efficiency, effectiveness and economy of Air Force programs and activities. https://www.afaa.hq.af.mil

Air Force Center for Environmental Excellence, Brooks City-Base, Texas: Provides a full range of technical and professional environmental and construction management services, including environmental restoration, pollution prevention, environmental compliance, natural and cultural resources conservation, housing/ facility design and construction, and comprehensive planning. Manages the Air Force's premier environmental clearinghouse and research service, PROACT, providing real-time online assistance to Air Force personnel. Center of expertise for the Air Force Environmental Impact Analysis process as well as for architecture, interior design, landscape architecture, medical facility design, construction management and military family housing privatization. Executes and maintains the Air Force family housing master plan. Serves as the focal point for evaluation, application and transfer of environmental cleanup technologies from the laboratory to the field. Advocates for the Air Force before state, local, regional and federal environmental authorities, and offers major commands and installations assistance with environment issues.

www.afcee.brooks.af.mil

Air Force Civil Engineer Support Agency, Tyndall AFB, Fla.: Maximizes Air Force civil engineers' capabilities in base and contingency operations by providing the best tools, practices and professional support. Comprises technical and professional experts in a variety of traditional and non-traditional civil engineer functional areas, including electrical, mechanical and structural engineering, readiness, training and education, management analysis, fire protection, systems engineering, explosive ordnance disposal, computer automation, energy management, vehicle and equipment acquisition, and weapons of mass destruction response. Develops unified design criteria and manages the Prime Base Engineer Emergency Force and RED HORSE programs. Hosts a multi-national engineer deployment competition--Readiness Challenge. Administers the Air Force Contract Augmentation Program contract to provide worldwide on-call contractor support for disaster response, contingency deployment operations and military operations other than war. Specializes in pavement structural evaluations and recommendations, utility rates negotiation, and repairing heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, airfield lighting and aircraft arresting systems.www. afcesa.af.mil

Air Force Command and Control, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Center, Langley AFB, Va.: Supports initiatives to influence, integrate and improve Air Force command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. Focuses on the joint force and joint force air component capability to dominate time battlespace and control forces. Priorities include engaging time joint warfighter through the Joint Forces Command joint battle management command and control board of directors: executive the Air Force chief of staff's vision of the Air and Space Operations Center Weapons System. and developing and fielding the C2 Constellation. Key nodes focus on horizontal integration within the C2 Constellation, including the Air Operations Center, Distributed Common Ground System, and the E-10A Multi-sensor Command and Control Aircraft. The information superhighway, dubbed "Constellation-net," includes ground, air and space communications such as the Global Information Grid, the Joint Tactical Radio System and the Multi-Platform Common Data Link. The Center represents warfighters from all the major commands and provides the operational warfighter perspective to Air Force C4ISR spiral development and systems acquisition commands and processes. Includes the Command and Control Battlelab, the Air Force Transformation Center and the Air Force Experimentation Office which leads the planning and execution of continuous experimentation culminating with the large scale Mint Force Expeditionary Experiment executed bi-annually.

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Although thousands of people work as models, even more compete to become models. Almost anyone who expects to become the next famous face is headed for disappointment. But those who enjoy modeling for its exciting opportunities are generally satisfied. "If you look at it in the right way, modeling is one of the most amazing businesses there is," says male model Beau Bourquin. "What we do for work is what 9-to-5 people take vacations to do: Travel all over the world, have fun, meet a lot of interesting people. It can get crazy and hectic. But as wild and crazy as this business is, you can have a realistic life."

There are many ways to get into modeling. Some models stumble into it without much forethought; others plan their lives around it from an early age. Although there are no guarantees that anyone can become a model, there are ways you can get things moving in the right direction. Keep reading to find out about the different media that use models, the standard requirements most modeling agencies look for, the process for finding and contacting the agencies, and what to expect if you become a model. The accompanying boxes discuss some related career options and how to avoid modeling scams.

Models and Their Media

The largest and highest grossing segment of this multimillion-dollar per year industry uses young, tall girls for fashion modeling. Less lucrative markets exist for males, infants and children, senior citizens, persons with disabilities, petites, plus-size models, and even specific body parts such as mouths or feet.

Some models' faces grace the covers of magazines. Others are part of the haute couture, or high fashion, elite of international runways. Still others appear in television commercials. But the majority of models are not as well known. Whether working in print, live, or on television, there are numerous possibilities for models in each medium.

Print modeling. Models who are photographed for printed matter make up the largest portion of the modeling industry. Still photographs of models appear in magazines, catalogs, newspapers, and corporate brochures, and on billboards. Generally, magazines provide models with the greatest variety of assignments in terms of coverage, diversity, and exposure. But catalogs, considered the least prestigious of the print modeling media, use the greatest number of models on a regular basis.

Magazines feature models in advertising, "advertorial," and editorial layouts. Advertisements vary in their use of models to display a company's product or create an image; an ad for foot powder might prominently feature its product with a parts model's feet, while an image-conscious ad for men's cologne might focus more on the model than on the product. Advertorials are product advertisements presented to look like photo essays. Editorial modeling includes content not paid for by outside advertisers, such as magazine covers and illustrations that accompany articles.

Although editorial modeling is the most prestigious of the three, it pays little compared to advertising and advertorial jobs. But advertising and advertorial work account for a small number of all modeling assignments--only about 10 percent, according to one agent's estimate. Meanwhile, publicity generated from appearing on the covers of major magazines often leads to more modeling assignments.

Live modeling. From the glamour of European runways to the obscurity of fitting rooms, live modeling is done in a variety of locations. According to Brandon Lewis, director of the Click Atlanta modeling agency, live modeling is especially popular in New York, Atlanta, and California. "The market for live modeling is growing a lot," he says. "Live ads have increased over the last 10 years." Live modeling is essential for fashion shows and showrooms; other models pose for sketching artists or model merchandise in retail stores or the fitting rooms of clothing designers. A small number do limited modeling for tea rooms, floor shows, trade shows, and conventions.